Independent Events, Truth as Roots and the Lockean View
Today I was reminded about the summation of probability of independent events, often exemplified with the “asking everyone in the room for a date” scenario. The chances of any particular one saying yes is low, but (if you ask enough people) then the chances that at least one person will say yes are much better.
\(P(a \lor b) = P(a) + P(b) – P(a \land b)\)
Of course, this works for more gloomy outcomes too, such as the chances of dying in car crash in your lifetime (between 1 in 100 and 1 in 200 according to estimates I found) 😞
Have started on Miguel Leon-Portilla's Aztec Thought and Culture which has an interesting perspective on rationality over myth in Nahuatl thought. Interesting that the word for truth “neltiliztli” is derived from “root”, “base” and “foundation”. Truth is therefore equated with well-grounded stability. Perhaps more similar to our own concept than we would have credited.
I am really enjoying Oliver Sacks' Awakenings which I have just got around to reading. Particularly refreshing is his holistic view, how a chemical/ pharmacological explanation of peoples' reactions to L-Dopa therapy gives just one part of the picture. He rails against mechanistic science:
“Folly enters when we try to 'reduce' metaphysical terms and matters to mechanical ones: worlds to systems, particulars to categories, impressions to analyses, and realities to abstractions.” – Awakenings, p228